Australia is a hot, arid country prone to drought. At any time of year, some parts of the nation face the risk of bushfire outbreak.1 While peak fire season varies across different regions, bushfires can break out anywhere and at any time with the right weather and fuel conditions.2
On top of that, climate change is also increasing the frequency and risk of dangerous bushfire conditions in Australia, with many parts of the country experiencing earlier starts to their bushfire seasons.3
“Our days are getting hotter and drier, and when we have droughts such as before the Black Summer fires, the conditions are so dry that fires are much more erratic,” says Jim Smith, former Deputy Commissioner of Fire and Rescue NSW and member of Emergency Leaders for Climate Action.
Black Summer saw ferocious bushfires sweep across the eastern states, burning more than 19 million hectares between August 2019 and March 2020.4
“The length and intensity of the fires were something never seen before.”
“The dryness of the fuel made the fire spread very quickly – much quicker than in previous fires.”
Understanding how climate change is influencing the severity and unpredictability of Australia’s fire seasons is an important part of being bushfire ready. Here’s what you need to know.
Australia’s fire seasons
Australia’s bushfire seasons are based on historical periods of peak fire activity and are generally influenced by seasonal weather patterns, says Professor Jason Sharples, natural hazard researcher and Director of UNSW Bushfire.
“In tropical northern Australia, the bushfire season aligns with the monsoon, with peak fire activity experienced during the winter dry season,” Professor Sharples explains.
“Further south, the bushfire season can cover spring, summer and autumn but varies with latitude. It tends to start earlier for more northerly latitudes such as southern Queensland and later for more southerly latitudes such as Victoria, Tasmania and southwest Western Australia.”
While the seasons are a good guide for when to be extra vigilant, Jim warns it’s important to be attentive to bushfire risk year-round, as changing weather patterns can create dangerous bushfire conditions unexpectedly.
“Fires can break out at any time,” he says. “We have had very serious fires in September and in April in the past, yet at other times, we have had snow in December.”
How weather impacts fire risk
Weather has a significant impact on bushfire threat, with factors such as wind, temperature, lightning, humidity and rainfall influencing the size, intensity and speed of bushfires.3
- High temperatures increase the risk of a fire starting, as well as its intensity.
- Low humidity can lead to the rapid drying of vegetation.
- Wind pushes heat into unburnt fuels, increasing the bushfire’s intensity. Strong winds can spread fires rapidly by carrying embers long distances and creating spot fires, while changes in wind direction can make fire unpredictable.
- Lack of rainfall can result in drier vegetation, increasing fire risk.
- Lightning strikes, particularly without accompanying rain or in dry conditions, can ignite bushfires.3
Climate change and bushfire risk
Climate change is influencing the frequency and severity of dangerous bushfire conditions in a number of ways, says Professor Sharples.
“The warmer and potentially drier conditions associated with global warming mean that bushfire fuels will generally have lower moisture content,” he adds.
“Drier fuels burn more readily and with greater intensity and are more likely to contribute to spotting, which can cause fires to grow rapidly across a landscape and lead to ‘firestorm’ conditions.”
Overall, Australia's bushfire seasons are beginning earlier and lasting longer.5 Professor Sharples says the Black Summer fires are a notable example of bushfires occurring outside of the traditional season, fuelled by the impact of climate change.
“The Black Summer season started very early, with significant fires being recorded as early as July and August in southern Queensland,” he shares.
“The main contributors to this were the exceedingly dry conditions associated with prolonged and severe drought and the anomalously high temperatures experienced across the continent in 2019.”
Climate change, he says, can impact bushfire severity in other ways.
“Severe bushfire conditions can also result from the interaction of a variety of weather systems over different parts of the country.”
Among these is El Nino, which occurs when tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures become warmer than average.6
How does El Nino impact bushfire risk?
Historically, El Nino years have been linked to lower rainfall and warmer temperatures, so when the Bureau of Meteorology declared an El Nino in 2023, authorities warned of a challenging bushfire season ahead.7
Despite those warnings, Professor Sharples says El Nino’s impact was ultimately overridden by warmer sea surface temperatures that contributed to significant rains along the eastern seaboard.
He notes that it’s still not clear how climate change impacts variability between El Nino and other weather drivers, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole and the Southern Annular Mode.
“Overall, there is still relatively low confidence in how climate change will influence these systems and their interactions,” he adds.
What lies ahead for our bushfire seasons?
While we still don’t know exactly how climate change will affect the Australian fire environment, Professor Sharples says there are some clear trends.
“Fire danger levels have been steadily increasing for several decades and will continue to do so as temperatures continue to rise.”
He also warns we should expect more fire activity at night.
“Historically, night offered a time of more benign fire activity and an opportunity to suppress fire, but these openings are becoming less available,” he says.
“Unfortunately, this means that in the coming years and decades, we should expect larger, more severe fires – and hence more damaging fires – more frequently.”
Climate change-related shifts in peak bushfire season have even complicated prevention strategies – such as reducing the opportunities for controlled burns – as well as their effectiveness.
“The increase in the length and severity of bushfire seasons also has implications for firefighter fatigue and mental health outcomes and affects our ability to share international firefighting resources across the southern and northern hemispheres,” Professor Sharples explains.
What can we learn from Indigenous fire management strategies?
Changing bushfire patterns are prompting fire authorities to search for alternative strategies, including those employed by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities.
“We’re starting to get a bit better at learning from First Nations people about land management,” says Mark Dobson, active firefighter and volunteer team manager at Disaster Relief Australia.
“Indigenous peoples are so connected to their country, and they’re far more in tune with what the land is up to and how it might impact their life.”
Indigenous fire management involves cool burning, where ‘cool’ slow-burning fires are lit before high fire danger season to reduce fuel loads and create fire breaks.8
Jim confirms that cool burning is gaining popularity around the NSW South Coast and other parts of the state.
“Indigenous peoples have burned the land for thousands of years to ensure larger fires didn’t happen and to line up with the cycles of the land and weather,” he shares.
He says working with Indigenous groups to understand these ancient practices may help develop land management methods for our modern urban and agricultural landscapes.
Indigenous fire management practices can be augmented with current techniques to enhance outcomes. This includes cooler and mosaic-type burns, Jim adds.
“So that when a fire does get started and reaches a burned area, it slows down and can be more easily contained.”
Climate change and bushfire preparation
Understanding how climate change is impacting weather and the risk of fire in your area is an important consideration when mapping out your bushfire survival plan – regardless of where in Australia you live.
Due to the increasing intensity and speed of fires, authorities are encouraging householders to be prepared and leave early, since even those who are well-equipped face extreme danger in the face of a bushfire.
“Leaving early, with a well-prepared property and a well-thought-out leaving trigger, is always your safest option and should be the primary goal of your bushfire safety strategy.”
For more expert tips to help you get bushfire ready, visit our you.prepared emergency content hub.
Jim Smith & Mark Dobson
With a combined firefighting history of more than 60 years, Jim Smith and Mark Dobson are leading members of Australia’s firefighting community. Their experience encompasses major bushfire events, including the Canberra Bushfires in 2003, Black Saturday in 2009 and the Black Summer fires of 2019-20. The pair now work together in their respective roles as General Manager and Founder of Ordinary Courage, a consultancy dedicated to providing organisations with the tools to sustain good workplace mental health. Youi is proud to partner with Jim and Mark in the creation of this bushfire preparedness content.
The content in this article has been prepared based on current government and emergency services guidelines and expert advice provided at the time of publishing. This information is subject to change. Please be sure to check for the latest information and always consider your personal circumstances regarding bushfire preparedness and response.
Where you have increased your cover or reduced your excess within 72 hours (or other period noted on your policy schedule) of a flood, storm, hail or bushfire occurring, cover will be limited to the amount that was effective prior to the change. Loss, damage or legal liability caused by, resulting or arising from flood, storm, hail or bushfire during the first 72 hours (or other period noted on your policy schedule) of your policy first being purchased is excluded unless certain conditions apply. Refer to the relevant Product Disclosure Statement for full T&Cs.
1 Source: Geoscience Australia – Bushfire, September 2022
2 Source: Bureau of Meteorology – Fire weather seasons
3 Source: Bureau of Meteorology – How weather affects fires
4 Source: Natural Hazards Research Australia – Understanding the Black Summer bushfires through research, January 2023
5 Source: UNSW – Brace for bushfire season ahead, but expect worse to come, August 2023
6 Source: Bureau of Meteorology – What is El Nino and how does it impact Australia?
7 Source: ABC News – Emergency services across Australia brace for bushfire season as El Nino approaches, November 2023
8 Source: Kimberley Land Council – Indigenous fire management
